Math, Perception, and the Post-2020 Void in Minneapolis Public Safety

Homicides spiked while police ranks plummeted. Bridging the gap between systemic reform and effective policing is the only way forward.

Approximately 12 hours after George Floyd was killed, I registered as a candidate for US Congress in District 5. In both 2020 and 2021, an important part of my (failed) campaigns included handing out my direct phone number and email address to thousands of people. One byproduct of getting over 40,000 votes is that I still get messages from people with questions, complaints and concerns. My hope is for this article to serve as a public address to them, and on their behalf, regarding a troubling issue, expressed to me, and shared by many, “Why does Minneapolis seem so much less safe today than it was 10 years ago?”

To be fair, we cannot answer that question completely in one editorial commentary. At best, we can hope to begin a conversation and cover some basic fundamentals. There are many factors that play important roles in determining critical citywide issues like Public Safety. We must also acknowledge that crime itself isn’t the beginning of the crisis, but rather, the end result of societal failures and weaknesses that have a right to be included. We need to recognize the broader definition of law enforcement.  In Minneapolis, we talk about the police as being MPD, but we also have County Sheriffs and State Police. Recently, Federal Law Enforcement divisions have received more attention. Each group has specific jurisdictions and roles to play in our service. When properly utilized, all of these branches are involved in fighting crime and together, work to keep our city and our citizens safe.

Additionally, we need to distinguish between reality and perception. The raw data tells us a story that we can calculate, analyze and mathematically absorb. The number of people killed, assaulted, robbed, etc. We can use these data to see trends, track growth or define success or failure. One example of an important data point is the following: “From 1997- 2019, Minneapolis averaged 42.7 homicides per year…” That’s 23 years of data that is confirmed and reliable. Beginning in 2020, the homicide rate spiked drastically, almost doubling, ranging from a low of 72 to a high of 94. We can look at statistics from shootings, carjackings, aggravated assault, and many others and see a similar pattern throughout all of it. But remember, each of us process the concept of safety in our own way. It is, after all, a feeling, and not beholden to a mathematical formula. Regardless of what the numbers say, it is completely fair for a person to feel safe, or unsafe, according to their own personal situation and condition. 

So let’s focus on the most commonly shared and understood perception, the city is not as safe as it used to be, and to understand why, we will closely examine the Minneapolis Police Department. Most people believe it is the job of the police to keep us safe. While that’s true that under certain restricted circumstances, that idea stems from a faulty premise. When the police respond to crimes, it is rarely while they are in progress. In plain point of fact, the most violent crimes are the least likely to be interrupted or prevented by the police. The overwhelming majority of police responses are to crimes that have already occurred. In other words, the opportunity for protection has passed. So what are the police used for? Mostly it is to process and investigate crimes and make sure that criminals are caught quickly and punished accordingly. When this is done well, consistently and transparently, it keeps perpetrators hesitant and citizens secure. To maintain economic viability, we must all feel safe. We have to be okay with letting our children go out and play, or ride their bikes in the neighborhood, or wait for the bus, or walk to school. We have to feel good frequenting the wide variety of restaurants or entertainment venues. We have to accept public transit as a legitimate option. The perception of strong Public Safety is literally the critical cornerstone in any functioning city. 

Why is Minneapolis less safe than it was 10 years ago? The murder of George Floyd was a terrible combination of tragic and horrifying actions, traumatic timing and devastating reactionary politics. The killing itself was filmed live and broadcast. The entire country was confined to their homes due to Covid-19 and glued to their TVs and social media outlets. It was both the beginning of our hottest weather, as well as the most intense period of a pivotal federal election environment. It was every citizen’s opportunity to fan the flames of righteous, personal grievance and every politician’s opportunity to hijack media attention. It was not just the civil unrest which immediately followed the murder that saw the MPD go from a robust 900+ officers in 2019, to less than 600 in 2020. Political pressures and elected officials publicly calling for defunding, and abolishing the police proved too much for many. Hundreds of officers with clean records, training and experience found greener pastures for themselves and their families and that abrupt disintegration left a tremendous void in safety coverage. The resulting hostile and demanding work environment caused the departure rates to continue and the downward cycle was firmly established. 

Before we summarize and conclude, we must reaffirm that there is not one simple answer to this question, or solution to this crisis. The Minneapolis Police Department has had a long and sordid history of systemic problems, including profiling, abuse of authority, unjustifiable violence, lack of transparency and accountability, and an overall culture of racist practices. The list of people killed by the MPD or while in police custody did not begin with George Floyd. Magically going back in time, without fixing what was wrong, is no solution. Drastic, substantial and meaningful changes must be fully accepted and integrated into the department if we are ever going to have the effective public safety we all envision.

Strategy, facilities, recruitment, equipment, training and all the other obvious, proactive improvements aside, the reason why the city feels less safe than it was 10 years ago is because we do not have the number of experienced officers that we used to or that we so desperately need.  Criminals are emboldened by it. The system is overwhelmed by it. Businesses have been permanently affected by it. The perception has been validated over and over again through heinous acts of violence committed in and around the city. Despite how many more people have been killed over the last 6 years, many local politicians still feed off of some vestige of public fury over the George Floyd murder. Rather than accept the reality of the facts and the data, or develop reasonable solutions, they cling to the enhanced drama associated with the storyline that started it all. The cycle is serious, and the longer it continues, the worse things get. Even if numbers begin now to change for the better, the damage has been done. Businesses are already closed, property values have already fallen, kids have already been pulled from public school, and most tragically, hundreds more people are already dead.

The reality is, at some point, it’s going to be too late to fix. One thing we all know for sure, a strong discussion after another shooting incident, is not the same thing as public safety. We want people in Minneapolis to both feel safe, and be safe. It is the duty of the local governing administrations to make them safe, and that takes money, personnel, effective policing strategies, and strong public messaging based on truth and reality, and right now, most people are feeling unsafe because we’re really not seeing any of that.