It has been about four months since Donald Trump was elected president. One thing has characterized his presidency so far – uncertainty. Programs are cancelled then temporarily reinstated by the courts to be cancelled again. Uncertainty about tariffs. They are threatened, then withdrawn, then back for a month, then off, but may be back again. Uncertainty about whether government programs will exist or even function. Programs are randomly cut, just to be reinstated by the courts but may be cut by Congress. Government employees needed to run those programs are fired, some rehired two weeks later. But maybe they will be cut again by Congress.
People don’t invest when there is uncertainty. And investment is the lifeblood of our economy. The stock market shows that. It declined 10% in a couple weeks, as no one wants to risk money with an uncertain future. So, businesses are pulling back. Compared with a year earlier, consumer sentiment is down 27% because consumers don’t want to spend with an uncertain future. And in my own personal front, my family has pulled back spending because we just don’t know what the future will be. Better to have money in the bank than need it and not have it.
This same uncertainty exists at the city level. I had coffee with a long-term business owner who is leaving Minneapolis. He is leaving specifically because of the uncertainty that the Minneapolis City Council has brought. What does uncertainty look like? No cops. Few cops. Maybe a minimum number of cops. Someday. Slow walk recruitment by cutting its budget. A Labor Standards Board to dictate how small business runs. Or not. Or maybe next year, depending on the outcome of the upcoming election. Eliminate I-94, because apparently people don’t need to go to the suburbs. Or not, given it was vetoed by MnDOT. But give the activists who are fighting for it with city money so the idea doesn’t actually die. Stop producing garbage and thus close HERC. Or not, given the City has no power to control packaging. The parking space in front of your business could be gone tomorrow, replaced by a bike lane and your customers gone. A homeless encampment could appear, and the City will do nothing. Decriminalized street level drug dealing could mean an open-air drug market in front of your store tomorrow. You were able to get to work in 15 minutes last week but now it is 30 minutes because they narrowed up the streets in a failed attempt to make streets safer.
This chaos brought by the Neo-Socialists have created an uncertain business environment no different than Trump. So, this business owner is leaving for places that don’t have this level of uncertainty. For places that elect people with a stable, not revolutionary vision for cities. Places that didn’t elect revolutionaries, which our socialist city council members are.
And what is even more extraordinary is that the value of his properties has declined over 20% in the last year, attributable to the policies of the City. He is losing millions of dollars selling now compared to just a few short years ago. But it is worth it to him to leave the uncertainty of Minneapolis government for red states where this uncertainty does not exist. I have talked to a number of long-time business owners who are doing the same.
One of the most anticipated political books of the year is Ezra Klein’s book “Abundance.” Klein talks about how liberal and Democratic American cities like Minneapolis have been shooting themselves in the foot by trying to bring solutions to societal problems – solutions that just create more problems and make cities less livable. And we see this with the agenda that this City Council has brought. The uncertainty about the future and the lack of reality of  this city council means people do not want to invest here anymore.
Uncertainty is not free.  We have an election coming up this November. There are two slates of candidates, one that will bring more uncertainty and one that will bring less. Uncertainty brings disinvestment. And we will become poorer if we choose it.
