Minnesota Republicans have Reasons for Optimism as They Look to 2026

If Minnesota held elections today for governor and legislators, the winning candidate might be “none of the above.”  Public surveys reflect an electorate that is uncertain about the future and largely dissatisfied with the politics of both major parties. But in a race to pick the lesser of two evils, Minnesota Republicans might be better positioned today than they have been in years.

Too many in the DFL have convinced themselves that Donald Trump’s chaotic presidency and controversial policies are a golden ticket to landslide victories in next year’s state elections. They aren’t listening to voters.

The shine on Gov. Tim Walz’s face has dimmed since his turn in the national spotlight. While he runs about even in job approval in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, older voters and all Minnesotans in the rest of the state have a negative view of his job performance, according to a new Minnesota StarTribune/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication.

Even if Walz’s polling numbers were better, seeking a third consecutive gubernatorial term is challenging in Minnesota. Rudy Perpich in 1990 couldn’t pull it off in spite of his decent popularity and a Republican Party that lost its endorsed candidate midway through October.

Democrats as a group suffer an even worse negative perception. Several polls have found that Democrats nationally have their lowest favorability ratings since the 1990s. Minnesota voters feel much the same about the locals. The Minnesota Poll found that among Minnesotans, congressional Democrats have a staggering 29% deficit in their approve-disapprove numbers (33% approve, 62% disapprove).

The DFL has a social agenda and big government proposals that aren’t playing well. Now, along come Minneapolis mayoral and city council races that will feature Democratic candidates to the left and far-left of most statewide voters. Meanwhile, the New York City mayoral primary win by socialist Zohran Mamdani is one more poster child for a party that has become too extreme for most Minnesotans. Imagine the challenge of moderate Minnesota DFL candidates who are portrayed by Republicans as devotees of “New York’s Muslim Mayor,” one who wants to give everyone free transportation and create taxpayer-subsidized, government run grocery stores. It’s a new “defund the police” hammer. Unfair? Sure, and untrue to boot when applied to most DFL candidates. But that didn’t stop Republicans from tagging every Democrat as an advocate of defunding the police and it won’t stop them from exploiting anti-Muslim sentiment.

Republicans have their own baggage to carry, of course, and not all of it has the gold Trump logo. Their biggest challenge is their own dysfunction and internal divisions. Given the opportunity to capitalize on public anger over Walz’s lockdowns in response to Covid and growing worries about inflation and the national economy, the GOP put up an opponent so unprepared for the race that he couldn’t even consistently state his position on a core Republican principle, opposition to abortion. The parade of Republican candidates too far to the right has contributed to the party’s 20-year record of losses in statewide contests.

Today, the GOP is even more divided. The far-right splinter group, Action 4 Liberty, seems to delight as much in criticizing Republicans as Democrats. Republicans haven’t won a statewide office in two decades. Party schisms don’t make the task ahead easier. Earlier this spring, the state party had enough, formally condemning the group. That hasn’t slowed the group.

Minnesota Republicans will be defined by Trump and right now the rendering the president is creating isn’t good. Trump’s approval-disapproval is 45%-54%, according to the Minnesota Poll. Minnesota voters think a bit more highly of congressional Republicans than they do of Democrats, although the GOP still has a 17-point gap (39% approve of their performance, 56% disapprove).

Republicans, though, have reason for hope. Last year, the GOP won enough seats in the state House of Representatives to gain a tie in the chamber. Trump’s 4-point loss to Kamala Harris was an improvement over his 7-point 2020 defeat and he broadened the traditional GOP electorate, drawing more young voters and people of color. While U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar coasted to a comfortable win, her opponent, Royce White, was able to flip 30 counties that voted Klobuchar in 2018 to the Republican side in 2024, and White was one of the worst statewide candidates either major party has offered in years.

There is another trend worth noting. In years past Minnesotans were among the nation’s leaders in splitting their ballots between Democrats and Republicans. Many Minnesotans often would go back and forth across the ballot, voting for the individual candidates not just the parties.

Today, Minnesotans are far less inclined to split tickets. In 2024, 75 counties cast straight party line votes for president and U.S. senator. Trump-White won the majority of counties, but Harris-Klobuchar won the majority of votes by racking up large victories in the most populous counties.

Trump’s negatives are concentrated among voters in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Everywhere else in the state, he has strong majority support. If the economy is strong next year and the chaos of 2025 has settled down, Trump may be able to drive big Republican turnouts in the counties that vote a straight ticket. Big enough, perhaps, to offset the huge vote totals Democrats collect in Hennepin and Ramsey counties.

Republicans also need to soften the most contentious issues starting with immigration and the Minnesota Poll provides a map. Most voters support deporting those undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes, but have reservations about the harsher policies of the administration.

Minnesota Republicans should become the leaders in immigration reform, not just immigration punishment.

The model is no less a conservative icon than Ronald Reagan who, in 1986, signed the last comprehensive immigration reform into law. The package brought greater order and transparency to the visa process, especially for temporary workers entering the country, and created a pathway to permanent U.S. residency for undocumented immigrants who had been in the U.S. for at least five years, had no criminal record and were current on taxes. The next year, Reagan signed an executive order to grant legal status to minor children of those immigrants who gained residency under the 1986 law and deferred deportation for children under 18 who were living in households in which the parents were gaining legal status.

Most Minnesotans recognize the economic importance of undocumented immigrants and their contributions to the state. They favor a Reagan-type approach, with 59% of voters statewide and 80% in Hennepin and Ramsey supporting undocumented immigrants with no criminal records to remain in the country, according to the Minnesota Poll.

Better positioning and a weakened DFL still require the GOP to put up strong candidates. Republicans have to resist what they typically do – rally around the ideologically pure even if they are unelectable. In 2026, a person who should get serious attention if she chooses to run for governor is Speaker Lisa Demuth. With ties to both rural Minnesota and the Twin Cities, she could build a broad base of support. Her leadership in the divided House of Representatives and her articulate and easy manner with the media and public are strong qualities.

It’s likely that for all their challenges, Democrats still will enter next year’s statewide and legislative races with a strong hand. Still, if Republicans can unite, put leadership over rigid partisanship and recruit strong candidates with broad appeal, there are many stars that may line up for a GOP resurgence.