Pt 2: Omar’s impact on the 2024 Presidential race in CD5

A clear national portrait has emerged since November 5, 2024: Trump won decisively, not with a wide margin, but a consistent one, mainly because voters rejected the Democratic ticket. Trump added 3 million votes to his 2020 totals; Harris-Walz got 7 million fewer votes than Biden-Harris had.  Harris-Walz lost the most votes in Democratic strongholds: Large deep blue cities such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles.  The Presidential vote margin in 2020 that Democrats had enjoyed over the GOP shrank the most in the states that Biden had won most comfortably.  Trump’s vote share increased in more than 90% of US counties. Counties that had shifted towards Biden shifted back.  Trump’s vote share increased in both urban and suburban counties.  It increased in counties that were more than 90% White and in counties that were less than 50% White.  It increased in counties with large populations aged 18-34, and in counties with large populations aged 65+.

In a tough-love missive published on November 7, Ruy Teixeira, co-author of the influential Emerging Democratic Majority, used AP VoteCast data to enumerate the pieces of the shattered Democratic coalition.  Democrats already had been losing the white working class; by 2024, the party also was losing women, young people, African Americans, Latinos, immigrants.  Democrats expanded only among upper-income professionals.

Minnesota followed the national pattern.  Among the 15 states that Biden won comfortably where the Democrat-over-GOP Presidential vote margin shrank, Minnesota was in the middle. Of our 87 counties, Trump’s vote share increased in 83, including Twin Cities metro counties. Harris-Walz won the state but with a smaller margin than Biden-Harris had. Trump increased his Minnesota vote share by 1.4 points, because he added some votes (34.6k), while Harris-Walz lost more (60.2k). In 2020, the DFL enjoyed a 233k Presidential vote margin over the GOP.  By 2024, that margin was 138k votes, a contraction of 41%.

Congressional District 5 (CD5)[i], now represented by Ilhan Omar, is the DFL stronghold.  In statewide races, the DFL has relied for decades on a huge CD5 vote margin over the GOP, to offset growing losses in rural Minnesota and small towns.   In 2024, CD5 delivered, but not with its customary strength.  Compared to 2020, CD5 turnout for President declined. Harris-Walz lost more votes than did Trump, so Trump’s CD5 vote share increased, by 0.21 points. In 2020, in CD5, the DFL-over-GOP Presidential margin was 251.3k votes.  By 2024, that margin had contracted 9.5%, to 225.7k votes.  The 23.8k margin loss in CD5 accounted for 25% of the DFL’s lost margin in the state.

Like the nation, in Minnesota’s CD5, Democrats lost the most in urban strongholds.  Trump’s vote share increased in Minneapolis by 0.42 points, but declined in CD5 suburbs, by 0.11 points.  The DFL-over-GOP Presidential vote margin shrank more in Minneapolis (10.1%, with 18.1k votes) than it did in the suburbs (7.8%, with 5.7k votes).

Figure 1 is a CD5 map of DFL changes in Presidential vote margin over the GOP; Figure 2 shows values of these changes in each Minneapolis ward and CD5 suburb.  The severest DFL margin loss occurred in south central Minneapolis, the Omar stronghold within CD5. The greatest loss, more than 4,000 votes, was in Minneapolis Ward 6, heart of Omar’s East African immigrant community.  The largest DFL margin gain was 161 votes, in St. Anthony Village, a small mostly White suburb straddling Anoka and Ramsey Counties, on the eastern boundary of CD5.

Figure 3 shows, for each CD5 precinct, change in the DFL-over-GOP Presidential vote margin as a function of Omar’s popularity.  “Popularity” is measured two ways, as her percentage of the vote in the 2024 DFL primary (Fig 3a, absolute popularity), and as the difference between the votes she and Harris received (Fig 3b, relative popularity).  The DFL-over-GOP Presidential vote margin declined with Omar’s increased popularity, more clearly in relative than absolute terms.  Below are examples of Omar-popular Minneapolis wards and the 2024 Presidential race:

• Ward 6 is home to the largest concentration of Somalis in the state, and possibly is the highest concentration of diaspora Somalis in the world. In this ward:
  • Ilhan Omar won 83.6% of the 2024 DFL primary votes
  • Compared to GE20, in GE24, Trump’s vote share increased 5.2 points and the DFL-over-GOP margin shrank by more than 4000 votes.
• Ward 2 covers the University of Minnesota, off-campus student housing, plus Prospect Park and parts of Seward. In this university and student-dominated ward:
  • Ilhan Omar won 71.2% of DFL primary votes
  • Trump’s vote share increased by 4.1 points and the DFL margin shrank by more than 1000 votes.
• Ward 5 covers North Minneapolis and is home to the most racially diverse and economically disadvantaged populations in the state. The City Councilor is Omar’s  friend Jeremiah Ellison, who is son of Keith Ellison, Omar’s benefactor.  In this ward:
  • Ilhan Omar won 68.0% of DFL primary votes
  • Trump’s vote share increased by 3.7 points and the DFL margin shrank by nearly 2500 votes.
• Ward 9 covers Powderhorn and parts of Phillips. On the City Council, it is represented by Democratic Socialist-endorsed Jason Chavez, a follower and promoter of Ilhan Omar.  In this ward:
  • Omar won 81.3% of DFL primary votes
  • Trump’s vote share increased by 2.6 points and the DFL vote margin shrank by nearly 2600 votes.

Nothing in this analysis suggests that Trump came close to winning Minneapolis or CD5.  He got less than 12% of the Minneapolis vote, and in no Minneapolis ward did he receive more than 15%.  His district-wide performance was less than 18% of the vote. Across CD5 suburbs, his vote share ranged from 22% in Golden Valley to 43% in tiny Hilltop. So, a Republican Presidential victory in CD5 is unlikely to happen any time soon.  But this does not mean that the DFL should not take note. To prevail in statewide races, the DFL must win Minneapolis and CD5 overwhelmingly to offset losses elsewhere in the state. The DFL still wins CD5 overwhelmingly, but in 2024, at least for President, the DFL margin shrank, and it shrank the most in the places where Ilhan Omar is most popular.

[i] Throughout this series, we frequently compare election results in 2020 and 2024. Redistricting occurred in 2022, which did not impact state, county or municipal boundaries, but did impact district, ward and precinct boundaries.  To manage comparisons with fidelity, we projected 2020 results onto districts, wards and/or precincts as they are now known, after redistricting.  Projection methods were:

•  Redistricting had only a minor impact.  The district lost Hopkins, a medium-sized suburb.  It also lost a small part of what already was a small part of Edina, another suburb.  Everything else remained the same.  The projection involved eliminating from the comparisons 2020 results from these suburban precincts.
• Minneapolis precincts and wards. From the Secretary of State, we had addresses and precincts (which are within wards) for a set of registered voters before redistricting, and the addresses and precincts for the same set of voters after redistricting.  After eliminating all voters whose addresses had changed, the projection then was based on the percentage of voters who “moved” from Precinct A before redistricting to Precinct B after redistricting.
• CD5 suburban municipalities. We examined precinct maps for each municipality before and after redistricting, and projected according to changes in area.

Pt 1: Ilhan Omar and the DFL:  Insights from Eight Years of Election Results

Pt 2: Omar’s impact on the 2024 Presidential race in CD5

Pt 3: Ilhan Omar does not produce votes for statewide DFL candidates

Pt 4: lhan Omar portends a DFL vote margin collapse

Pt 5: Why is Omar’s comparative performance so poor?

Pt 6: What should the DFL do?