The Star Tribune’s Omar quote “… more outreach, more policy signals and more understanding of progressive priorities “would be helpful in us winning.”” immediately elicited scorn. Max Nesterak, a writer at the Minnesota Reformer, remarked that Ilhan Omar got 30,000 fewer votes than either Harris or Klobuchar, and wondered why she thought that was. Actor Aaron Booth said, “Of course that argument coming from Omar would maybe seem a little less absurd if she hadn’t run well behind Harris (and even farther behind Klobuchar)”. Ilhan Omar presumably did everything she lamented that the Harris-Walz team failed to do, yet both Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar each earned 30k more votes than she. Every DFL candidate for State House with precincts in CD5 got a higher percentage of votes in those precincts than did Ilhan Omar.
Omar’s under-performance in GE24 was nothing new. She always has received fewer votes and a lower percentage of the vote than every other DFL candidate on the CD5 ballot, up and down (Figure 7a). Omar’s lost votes mostly have gone to Republicans: The GOP candidate for US House in CD5 always performs above other GOP candidates, slightly in GE18, and much more significantly in Omar’s re-election GEs (Figure 7b).
In 2020, Omar under-performed Biden by the largest margin of any Democratic House candidate in the US, while her Republican opponent Lacy Johnson over-performed Trump by the largest margin of any Republican House candidate in the US. In 2022, among the 205 partisan races where the DFL fielded a candidate, Ilhan Omar’s performance compared to Walz was 3rd from the bottom (Figure 8). In 2024, her performance compared to Harris was 8th from the bottom among all US Democratic House candidates, and the performance of her Republican challenger compared to Trump was 6th from the top. She was the greatest under-performing Democratic House incumbent in the nation.
For the past 26 years, no DFL CD5 House candidate has underperformed like Ilhan Omar. The DFL Candidates Average Vote (DFL CAV) is the average number of votes earned by DFL candidates in the top five races. “Top Five” is defined in the DFL Constitution: US President, US Senate, MN Governor, MN Attorney General, MN Secretary of State, MN Auditor. Because, in Minnesota, elections for President and State Constitutional Officers occur in different years, the CAV is averaged over two consecutive cycles.
Figure 9 shows the DFL CAV in CD5 from 1998 through 2024, and the number of votes for the DFL CD5 House candidate averaged over the same two consecutive cycles. Martin Sabo was elected to CD5 in 1978, and in his four re-elections before retirement, his votes exceeded the DFL CAV. Keith Ellison was elected in 2006 as Sabo’s successor. That year, his votes were slightly below the DFL CAV, but in every one of his re-elections, Ellison’s votes matched or exceeded the CAV. Ilhan Omar? Her votes always have been below the DFL CAV, profoundly below in each of her re-elections.
Figure 10a shows, for each Minnesota CD, the current DFL and GOP House candidates’ votes as a percentage of the DFL and GOP CAV within the same CD. From these percentages, we projected (Figure 10b) statewide DFL and GOP CAVs if each party’s top ticket candidates performed like their US House candidates within the indicated CD.
The DFL now enjoys a statewide 215.5k CAV margin over the GOP. If, in the future, top-ticket DFL candidates behave like Ilhan Omar and are rewarded with her votes, the DFL-over-GOP CAV will shrink 60%, by more than 126k, leaving the DFL with a much less defensible margin of 89.1k votes. If, in addition, GOP top-ticket candidates behave like Omar’s GOP competitors, in statewide races, the GOP could trounce the DFL by nearly half a million votes.
Except for rural CD7[i], only CD5 has such a large projected negative impact on the statewide DFL CAV. But nobody ever has urged Harris, Walz, or other top-ticket Democrats to campaign more like recent CD7 DFL House candidates. Such suggestions constantly are made about the “Progressive Movement” and Ilhan Omar, most recently by Omar herself: Greater appeals to The Progressive Movement, e.g. copying her, “… would be helpful in us winning”. The data show that appealing to “The Movement”, copying Ilhan Omar, would destroy the statewide margin the DFL now enjoys over the GOP.
If the DFL needs a model House candidate, it has one in CD2’s Angie Craig, who exceeded the DFL CAV in her CD. If DFL and GOP statewide candidates performed like Angie Craig and her GOP challengers, the DFL-over-GOP margin in CAV would increase by 3k-48k votes.
Angie Craig never has been lauded as “the face of the Progressive Movement”. Rather, she has been lauded as a hard worker who forges bipartisan compromise, and who delivers for her constituents. In late 2024, she was elected as ranking member to the influential Agriculture Committee, the same Committee that former CD7 DFLer Collin Peterson had dominated, before he finally succumbed to the red wave that swept over rural CDs. Craig represents one of the few remaining competitive House districts in the US. She and Omar were elected in the same Trump-backlash year, 2018, and in every GE since, millions of national dollars have poured into both races, but for different reasons. National cash pours into competitive CD2 because politically shrewd operatives in both parties want to win it. National cash pours into uncompetitive CD5 because politically naïve donors use money to express their love or loathing for Ilhan Omar.
Six years after Craig and Omar first were elected, and after both have had their own and their GOP competitors’ campaigns saturated with national funds, Angie Craig earns more votes than the DFL CAV in her CD, while Ilhan Omar earns far less. Perhaps if top-ticket Democratic candidates campaigned more like Angie Craig, “… it would be helpful in us winning”. But that would require departing from the myth of Ilhan Omar.
[i] Minnesota CD7 is a rural district that covers a vast swath of land along the state’s western border, from the northern border with Canada almost to the southern border with Iowa. DFLer Collin Peterson had represented CD7 for 30 years and continued to get elected long past the time when most of Minnesota’s rural voters had swung Republican. In 2020, the rural red wave finally swept over him: He was defeated by Trump-endorsed Michelle Fischbach, who earned 53.4% of the vote. Fischbach won re-election in 2022 with 67% of the vote, and in 2024 with 70% of the vote. CD7 is now thoroughly GOP, and the DFL has not managed to field a candidate who could match Peterson.
Peterson’s descendent on the House Agriculture Committee is not from CD7 but rather from CD2. In late December 2024, Craig was elected by her House peers to become the Committee’s ranking member. CD7 may never have another DFLer like Peterson, but CD2 has Angie Craig. The two districts share some characteristics: Both include medium-sized cities with industrial hubs, both include college- and university towns, both include smaller agriculturally-oriented towns. There are differences: CD7 covers much more rural land than does CD2; CD2 includes some 2nd and 3rd ring Twin Cities suburbs, and its proximity to the state’s major metropolitan area creates a different sociocultural climate than CD7. Despite these differences, Angie Craig in CD2 is a decent model the DFL could replicate if seeking a new House candidate to compete effectively in CD7.
Pt 1: Ilhan Omar and the DFL: Insights from Eight Years of Election Results
Pt 2: Omar’s impact on the 2024 Presidential race in CD5
Pt 3: Ilhan Omar does not produce votes for statewide DFL candidates
Pt 4: lhan Omar portends a DFL vote margin collapse
