Pt 5: Why is Omar’s comparative performance so poor?

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Ilhan Omar’s defenders routinely greet reports of her comparative electoral weaknesses by accusing CD5 voters of Islamophobia, racism, misogyny, xenophobia.  And yet:

  • CD5 voters elected the first Muslim to Congress, Keith Ellison, who also is Black. Through his Congressional tenure, his votes first matched and then exceeded the DFL CAV in CD5. He left CD5 to compete for the State Attorney General seat, which he won, largely with support from CD5 voters, eager to show that a Muslim African American could win Minnesota statewide.
  • In the 2018 DFL primary, CD5 voters chose Ilhan Omar over five other candidates, who all, by conventional metrics, were better qualified than she. CD5 voters chose her precisely because of her identity constellation:  They were proud to distinguish themselves by electing the first Somali-American, Muslim, woman-of-color immigrant to Congress.  Many still feel this way.
  • Since 2018, CD5 voters have elected six additional Muslim, women-of-color 1st or 2nd generation immigrants to municipal and state legislative seats:
    • Aisha Chughtai, Minneapolis Councilor in Ward 10.
    • Aurin Chowdhury, Minneapolis Councilor in Ward 12.
    • Nadia Mohammed, St. Louis Park Mayor.
    • Hodan Hassan, State Representative in LD62B.
    • Anquam Mahamoud, State Representative in LD62B (after Hassan retired)
    • Zaynab Mohammed, State Senator in SD63.
  • In GE24, Ilhan Omar’s Republican challenger, Dalia al-Aqidi, was a Muslim, woman-of-color immigrant; al-Aqidi got more votes than every other GOP candidate.

CD5 voters have demonstrated repeatedly their openness, even eagerness, to support Muslim, Black, women, and immigrant candidates.  Omar fell from many CD5 voters’ grace not because they suddenly become Neanderthals, and only for her, but because they were offended by her behavior, and were repulsed by “Progressivism” with increased exposure to it.  This 2024 public exchange between a Ken Martin defense of Omar, and an outraged CD5 CD5 voter illustrates the sentiments:

Ken Martin:  “It’s time to set the record straight: Omar has spent the last decade building and strengthening our party … The future of our party depends on leaders like Omar … She works tirelessly to unite the party”.

The CD5 DFL voter’s response:  “Let’s really set the record straight. An elected official who picks public fights with the Minneapolis mayor, who refers to Jewish students as “pro-genocide,” who tells former President Barack Obama that “DEFUND POLICE” isn’t a slogan but a policy demand, is not working “tirelessly to unite the party,” … She is using divisiveness to draw attention and money to herself…The party’s future is actually grim if it depends on “leaders” famous for strings of anti-Semitic remarks, allegations of financial impropriety, and photo ops with nurses or teachers picketing, but no legislative productivity on their behalf… Omar attempts to smear opponents by lying about who “bankrolls” their campaigns. We know who bankrolls her campaigns: Her legions of social media followers across the US…”

In her 2024 primary victory speech, Ilhan Omar accused her opponent of “aligning with literal Nazis” (video), and declared that her campaign was one of joy.  Her supporters cheered, pumped their fists in the air.  This is typical.  Neither Omar nor her supporters ever have acknowledged that she fails to secure widespread durable voter support because of her own weaknesses, and that the best way to improve their standing is to correct those weaknesses.  Instead they blame “Organized Money”, or the party, or “Black Men” opponents, or “Jews!” (e.g. AIPAC), or voters’ racist Islamophobia.  There is an old political adage: It is best not to dismiss your candidate’s poor performance by insulting the voters, or by blaming the world’s perfidy.  It is more constructive to look within.

Pt 1: Ilhan Omar and the DFL:  Insights from Eight Years of Election Results

Pt 2: Omar’s impact on the 2024 Presidential race in CD5

Pt 3: Ilhan Omar does not produce votes for statewide DFL candidates

Pt 4: lhan Omar portends a DFL vote margin collapse

Pt 5: Why is Omar’s comparative performance so poor?

Pt 6: What should the DFL do?

About the Author

Yiscah Bracha
Yiscah Bracha
Yiscah Bracha lives in South Minneapolis. She holds a PhD in Health Services Research and Policy, and an MS in Statistics, both from the University of Minnesota. After a decades-long career in health services research, she “retired” and turned her attention to an early love, local politics. When not analyzing data or writing, she can be found on her bike, or in her canoe, or on cross-country skis, or in her oasis-in-the-city backyard.

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