The Declining Significance of Race? Not Quite

According to a recent study on economic mobility in the United States, race appears to be a declining factor in terms of explaining intergenerational mobility. For some the conclusion might be that race matters less in America. But the reality is less that race doesn’t matter and more that class has become even more of a significant variable or factor in American politics.

Researchers at the Harvard University’s Opportunity Insights Center tracked intergenerational mobility by race and class. What they found was that betwe…Not en 1978 and 1992 children from high income families saw their incomes increase, while children from low income families decreased by 30%.  At the same time income earnings for parental income of Black children at all levels increased.  This reduced the Black-White income gap across the board by 30%.

On the face of it, this study would seem to suggest that the gap between Black and White children  has decreased , thereby mitigating or rendering race a less important factor in America. Yet race still does matter. What has happened in recent American history are a couple of things.  One is that for poor White children, their mobility has decreased, leveled down to that perhaps that for Blacks.   Two, instead of economic mobility increasing overall, it is decreasing.

This study suggests class has become even more important than it was before. The evidence from this study documents an increased rigidity whereby now both Blacks and Whites at lower income levels have less mobility to move up now than before.  The study also  indicates that factors such as parental income and neighborhood are even more determinative of social mobility and life outcomes than before. At no point does this study indicate that race is no longer important.  Instead, there has been a leveling down in a sense that class now holds down or holds back Whites at lower income levels, at rates that are approximating those for African Americans.  Therefore at lower income levels, both Blacks and Whites face increasingly convergent impediments to social mobility.

What does all this mean? Race and class continue to hold back many in America.  Repeated studies point to significant racial disparities in income, wealth, home ownership, criminal justice, education, and voter participation.  Many of these are solely issues of race, but they too intersect with economics and class. To be from a lower socio-economic class, regardless of race, impose impediments on social mobility, and those class barriers are only increasing.

When we think about the 2024 presidential and other elections, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are seriously talking about class, nor how its intersection with race impacts social mobility in America. Despite Trump’s appeal to the working class, he offers nothing to help them beyond appeals to anger and racism, Harris’s proposals acknowledge race and identity, but offer little to address the root causes of intergenerational poverty.

The dirty secret of American politics is that both race and class do matter. They come together to undermine the very concept of the American dream and the now mythic belief that by merit and hard work, individuals can get ahead.  If it was not the case. already, American society has become more rigid and stratified, with little evidence that it is going to change in the future, regardless of the party or president elected this November.