A historically bad defense and a collapsing bullpen should have buried Minnesota by July—but a spectacular season from Byron Buxton and a weak American League field are keeping playoff hopes alive.
Two trends are buoying fans’ hopes for the 2026 Twins. First, star Byron Buxton is having one of his best seasons, keying the team’s sound offense. Second, the American League is stuffed with mediocre and bad teams, allowing the Twins to be in the Wild Card race despite a losing record.
But then there are the predictable downsides for the Twins. The team’s bullpen ranks last in the major leagues in ERA. The Fielding Bible also ranks their -36 defensive runs saved last in the majors.
One more bit of unwelcome news: their starting rotation, a strength at the season’s outset, is now plagued by multiple injuries. Of their eight starters at the beginning of the season, five have already spent time on the injured list and one—Simeon Woods Richardson—has been booted from the organization due to poor performance.
First, the good news. Buxton has consistently been near the top of the league in home runs (25 at this writing) and OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average, currently .915). At this point in the season, his performance in these offensive categories resembles only his excellent 2021 season (28 HR, 1.005 OPS). Statcast reveals impressive barreling (98th percentile) and slugging (93rd percentile) skills.
Buxton’s defense is no longer as stellar as it was way back in 2017, when he won a Fielding Bible Award for his center field play. The problem is his arm, now, according to Statcast, ranking in the 14th percentile in overall arm value and 46th percentile in arm strength. He is, however, defensively superior to many Twins infielders, as we will see.
Beyond Buxton, the team’s offense overall is near the majors’ averages. The Twins have a team .242 batting average, an on-base percentage of .322, an OPS of .730, and score 4.82 runs per game. The MLB averages are a .242 batting average, .318 on-base percentage, .712 OPS, and 4.45 runs per game.
The other big positive is the terrible American League this year. Only five teams are playing above .500 and only three have a positive run differential. Compare that to the National League, where ten of fifteen teams are above .500 and seven have a positive run differential. At this rate, the Twins have a chance to sneak into the playoffs with a losing record.
There’s considerable bad news for the Twins, though. Several players rank as the worst defenders in the major leagues. The Fielding Bible ranks Brooks Lee as the worst defensive player in the majors, at 1,242 of 1,242 players. He is closely accompanied by infielders Tristan Gray (1,234) and Luke Keaschall (1,215), catcher Victor Caratini (1,185), and outfielder Trevor Larnach (1,159). The recently returned infielder Royce Lewis lags in the bottom half of fielders at 750, with infielder Ryan Kreidler nearby (754).
Then there is the bullpen, bringing in an ERA at the league’s bottom at 5.48. A useful statistic here is Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a sabermetric tool that estimates a pitcher’s ERA based only on events the pitcher has direct control over—strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs—while removing the influence of defense, luck, and the quality of balls in play.
The average FIP among major league pitchers is about 3.20 in 2026, and lower is better. Two bullpen pitchers are bettering that average—Andrew Morris (2.88) and Eric Orze (2.83)—but five other bullpen pitchers are well above the average, ranging from Anthony Banda at 3.96 all the way to Kody Funderburk at 5.66. There are few grounds for optimism here.
With the starters, we are seeing young arms get their first extensive experience in the majors. All at this point have FIPs well above the majors’ average. Conor Prielipp (3.93), Mike Paredes (4.95), and Zebby Matthews (4.95) have work to do to get near that average. The current Twins ace is Joe Ryan, whose FIP of 2.83 ranks sixth among all major league pitchers. His FIP is the only one among the current starting staff at or below average. There is room for improvement for this staff, for sure.
Add it all up and you have the worst fielding team, the worst bullpen, and a substandard starting rotation. But you have a pitching ace in Joe Ryan, and Byron Buxton is having one of his best seasons. Perhaps a few talented players can carry this team into the playoffs in the American League, where mediocrity equals outstanding comparative performance.
