While Cleveland and Chicago outpaced Minnesota at the deadline, a weak American League landscape leaves the door open for a Wild Card run.
Minnesota Twins fans are surprised and delighted that their team is still in the playoff hunt as August begins. By the trade deadline, the team had added three pitchers to aid their postseason push.
Probably the best of the three is Toronto’s righthander Jeff Hoffman, a 32 year old from Toronto, who has posted a 1.21 ERA and 30 strikeouts in the last 22 1/3 innings. But the Twins gave up a top ten prospect (pitcher Dasan Hill) and a top 20 prospect (pitcher John Klein) in return. Hoffman is under team control through 2027. The ATHLETIC website rated the trade an A- for Toronto and a C+ for the Twins.
Another pitcher arriving is A. J. Minter, a left handed reliever from the Mets. His ERA is 2.35 but he has only 20 strikeouts for the season. His velocity is down a bit this season as well, and he is a free agent after the season. In return, the Mets received two top thirty prospects, infielders Bruin Agbayani and Billy Amick. The ATHLETIC rated the trade a B for both teams.
A third pitcher is journeyman starter righthander Dean Kremer from Baltimore, whose career ERA is 4.26 — but 6.50 this year – and who will enter the rotation immediately giving the Twins’ depleted pitching ranks. Kremer is a free agent after this season. The Twins game up Johmnardo Reyes, a top ten prospect outfielder. The ATHLETIC rated the trade an A- for the Orioles and a B for the Twins.
These three additions accompany earlier trades landing relievers Tommy Nance from the Blue Jays and Woo-suc Go from the Tigers.
Amidst fan optimism from these acquisitions, the broader situation requires Twins fans to curb their enthusiasm a bit. Division rivals Chicago and Cleveland, whom the Twins trail in the standings, also augmented their rosters via deadline deals. As The ATHLETIC website noted: “The two teams above them have added more” than have the Twins.
The rich also got richer, with the Los Angeles Dodgers gaining Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal for their rotation and the Philadelphia Phillies adding three time batting champion (and former Twin) Luis Arraez to their lineup.
The reason the Twins are in the playoff hunt is because the American League has very few good teams. On trade deadline day, only six AL teams stood above .500 but no team was playing .600 ball. In the NL the same day, eight teams stood above .500 and three – the Dodgers, Brewers, and Braves – were playing. 600 ball.
The Twins have performed impressively in recent weeks to get to the .500 mark for the season. That marks them as a middling team, and team statistics bear that out.
Minnesota does not rank highly in overall team statistics according to Fangraphs and Baseball Savant analyses: 26th of 30 teams in pitching, 26th in batters’ plate discipline, 26th in the quality of batted balls, 23rd in team hitting, 22nd in batters’ plate discipline and 22nd in the quality of batted balls.
The team’s deadline acquisitions resulted from a bullpen performance so far that has been poor. On deadline day, the Twins bullpen ranked 26th of 30 teams with a 4.82 Earned Run Average and a disturbing 1.52 WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched, where 1.20 is good).
The Twins’ offense, however, has excelled in batting average on the balls they do put in play (BABIP) with a .286 average, placing them in the top half of MLB teams.
It is the high quality of certain players that sparked the team’s improvement. Two starters have been elite: Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley have ranked among the top thirty starters in baseball this season.
The Twins also have five players who are big offensive contributors. xwOBA – expected weighted on base average – is a player’s on base average when removing the opposing team’s defense from the player’s performance. This batting statistic reveals five Twins who rank well above the average of just over 1300 current major league players. Outfielder Byron Buxton ranks 50th, second Baseman Kody Clemens 74th, DH Josh Bell 92nd, outfielder Luke Keashall 119th and third baseman Brooks Lee 144th. They are the main contributors to the sound offensive performance for the team.
Team defense is another matter, though. The Fielding Bible ranks the Twins 29th of 30 teams in defensive runs saved. Four players rank high as defenders: outfielder Austin Martin (58), Kody Clements (94), catcher Ryan Jeffers (191), and Byron Buxton (229). But four other players rank very low in the rankings: outfielder Trevor Larnach (1310), shortstops Tristan Gray (1311) and Ryan Kreidler (798) and Brooks Lee (1302).
Looking ahead, two areas of concern appear. First, Byron Buxton’s recurrent hip injury is again keeping him from the field and Joe Ryan is again showing signs of diminished pitching performance later in the season.
Can the team win the division title? The White Sox and Guardians augmented their teams more than the Twins. So, it remains an uphill fight.
Can the Twins make the playoffs? Most likely as a wild card team. But keep in mind the broader perspective. If the Twins were in the National League Central Division, they would be 14 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Twins are better, but overall, still a middling team after the deadline.
I was at the field when they hit the homerun walkoff then they followed up the next day with a grandslam walkoff so at least they got that in the bag.