Democrats argue that they have the right message or policies to win the working class but somehow, they failed to communicate properly
People who have heard me speak about politics note that I often invoke the wisdom of Willie Sutton. Sutton was a famous bank robber. When asked why he robbed banks he replied, “That is where the money is.”
The first rule of politics is that you must win elections if you want to make policy. To win elections you need to appeal to the greatest number of voters. The Democrats seemed to have forgotten that.
At one time the Democrats were the party of the working class. They were low to moderate income voters without college degrees. Yet as the 2000 Census and 2024 election exit polls numbers show, the Democrats are appealing to high-income college educated voters, placing them out of touch with the majority of the voters.
According to 2024 exit polls, more voters self-identify as Republicans (35%) or Independents (34%) than Democrats (31%). Who is now voting for, or identifies as Democrats?
The latest US Census indicates that 62% of the adult population lacks a four-year college degree. In 2024 elections, those without a bachelor’s degree were 57% of the voters, 43% with this degree or higher. Trump wins 56% of the former, Harris 56% of the latter.
Voters making less than $50,000 per year were 27% of the electorate. Harris loses them 48% to 50%. For those making $50,000 to 99,000, they were 32% of the electorate. Harris loses them 46% to 52%. For those making $100,000 or more, they were 41% of the electorate. Harris wins them 51% to 47%. Harris lost to a base constituting59% of the voters.
Whites were 71% of the voters, and Trump won 57% of them. Blacks are eleven percent of the voters, and Harris did win 86%. However, Latinos were also eleven percent of the voters and she only won 51%. Asians are three percent of the electorate and Harris won 55%. The number for all communities of color are down compared to previous Democrats going back to the 1980s.
Finally, arguably the largest voting bloc in the US are white voters without a college degree (White working class), and they are thirty-eight percent of the voters–Trump wins 66% of them.
Democrats argue that they have the right message or policies to win the working class but somehow, they failed to communicate properly or that Republicans simply lie and that when the voters come back to their senses they will return to the party. But the reality is the statistics show that the working class rejected them.
Where the largest numbers of voters are, Democrats are losing. They are only winning among a base of voters that constitute a minority of the population. You cannot win elections if you do that. You cannot ignore the wisdom of Willie Sutton.
