The starting rotation looks like a million bucks, but a bottom-tier bullpen and historic defensive woes show the limits of a $106 million budget.
Just over a quarter of the way through the 2026 major league baseball season, how are the Twins faring? Best case: despite a losing record, they remain competitive in a weak AL Central division, thanks to impressive starting pitching. Worst case: serious position player and bullpen deficiencies plague current and future seasons.
So, here is the “half full” perspective. Despite losing expensive starter Pablo Lopez to a season-ending injury, the Twins’ starters have often performed well on the mound. 2025 All-Star Joe Ryan continues to accumulate quality starts and sports an earned run average (ERA) of just under three runs per start. Soft-tossing Bailey Ober has surprised with a sound season thus far and sports an ERA of 3.63.
The best news for the team is the emergence of quality young starters from AAA and via those controversial 2025 trades. Trades brought Mick Abel (3.98 ERA but currently injured) and Taj Bradley (2.87 ERA and on the injured list). AAA callup Zebby Matthews (1.38 ERA) and Conor Prielipp (3.85 ERA) have been impressive.
These starters usually provide up to seven innings of quality pitching. The team needs to depend on quality position player performance to deliver good defense and hitting and a sound bullpen to close out games. That is where the trouble lies.
The Twins’ bullpen continues to be an adventure. To quote Forrest Gump, it is “like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re gonna get.” In the Twins’ case, often those chocolates do not taste good at all.
One indicator that summarizes the bullpen problem is the measurement of a player’s contribution to game wins in comparison with an average replacement player on the bench. The best players can range up to +4 to +6 on that scale and every team wants their pitching staff and fielders to rank in positive territory.
The following Twins bullpen pitchers have WAR totals at zero or below: Cole Sands, Anthony Banda, Kody Funderburk and Cody Lawyerson. The top reliever in WAR is aged Taylor Rogers at a tiny 0.4 above replacement. Justin Topa was just released due to ineffectiveness. Not an impressive list of contributors.
Another big weakness is the starting lineup at bat and in the field. Now there are several helpful contributors in that group, judging by the WARs: outfielder Byron Buxton (1.8 WAR), catcher Ryan Jeffers (1.7 WAR, now injured), outfielder Austin Martin (0.9 WAR), infielder Cody Clemens (0.6 WAR). But then there is a sizable list of players with negative WARs: catcher Victor Caratini, outfielder James Outman, infielder Royce Lewis, designated hitter Josh Bell, and outfielder Matt Wallner. It is no surprise that Lewis and Wallner recently returned to AAA Saint Paul.
Fielding is also a Twins problem. According to the Fielding Bible, so far in 2026 the Twins rank 28th of 30 MLB teams in their fielding proficiency. The Fielding Bible also ranks all MLB players by their fielding proficiency, ranging from one to 1096. Outfielder Matt Wallner ranked 1094 (third worst in major league baseball), shortstop Brooks Lee came in at 1091 (seventh worst). Infielders ranking poorly were Tristan Gray at 941, Royce Lewis at 916, and Josh Bell at 872. Byron Buxton has lost speed in center field, now ranking at 791.
The three best fielding Twins were infielder Kody Clemens (26) and outfielders Trevor Larnach (129) and Austin Martin (144). Victor Caratini, now doing most of the catching due to Ryan Jeffers’ injury, rated at 273, making his catching better than his hitting (under .200 all season).
What’s the team’s 2026 outlook? FanGraphs now puts the Twins’ playoff odds at 24 percent. Not that terrible, and due to the competitive weakness of the teams in the AL Central. There is some hope, but I counsel you against putting money on the team in Vegas. The shortcomings are glaring and unlikely to improve this season.
Longer term, the team lacks the payroll to be competitive through the postseason. The current payroll of just under $106 million is well below the payroll of all but one of last year’s playoff teams. The Twins are trying to get by with a few talented players alongside unproven minor league callups, known mediocrities, and purchases from the free agent remainder bin. As long as that approach persists, fans should mute their expectations.
